CONFERENCE PREVIEW, TAKE TWO

The word dominance was spelled Y-O-R-K-T-O-W-N during the first decade of this century. But this year's Hoosier Heritage Conference meet presents the stiffest challenge yet to the Tigers' status as the league's premier swimming and diving program. It will take a herculean effort for Yorktown to emerge with either championship trophy on Saturday, and here's why.

The psych sheet for the 2010 HHC meet ranks the entrants in each event (except diving) by their seed times. For the sake of this analysis, we assume that each swimmer will score in the position in which he or she is seeded (that never happens, but it's the fairest way to project each team's relative strength).

The top eight relay teams at conference score in this order: 1st-32, 2nd-26, 3rd-24, 4th-22, 5th-20, 6th-18, 7th-14, 8th-10. In the individual events, the top 12 finishers score in this order: 1st-16, 2nd-13, 3rd-12, 4th-11, 5th-10, 6th-9, 7th-7, 8th-5, 9th-4, 10th-3, 11th-2, 12th-1. Based on those criteria, here are the 2010 HHC meet projected standings:

Girls--1. Mt. Vernon 275, 2. New Palestine 207, 3. Yorktown 188, 4. Pendleton Heights 187, 5. Greenfield Central 138, 6. Delta 135, 7. Shelbyville 80, 8. Rushville 30.

Boys--1. Greenfield Central 247, 2. New Palestine 199, 3. Yorktown 195, 4. Mt. Vernon 182, 5. Pendleton Heights 155, 6. Delta 151, 7. Shelbyville 86, 8. Rushville 30.

Mt. Vernon beat Pendleton Heights by 23.5 points to win the 2009 HHC girls title, even though the Lady Marauders won only one event (200-yard freestyle relay). They did it with superior depth, and they will rely on that depth again on Saturday to pile up the points. Mt. Vernon holds just two top seedings in 2010--in the 200-yard freestyle relay and the 400-yard freestyle relay. By comparison, Yorktown and New Palestine both have three top seeds, Pendleton Heights has two and Delta one. But the Lady Marauders are loaded, with three Top 10 seeds in the 200-yard freestyle, 200-yard IM, 50-yard freestyle, 100-yard butterfly, 100-yard freestyle, and 100-yard breaststroke. Mt. Vernon is seeded 2-3-4 in the 100 free, which would be good for 36 points if the seedings hold water.

Keep in mind, the divers are not seeded for HHC, so their potential scores are not included in any of the above analysis. But MV has three state ranked girl divers competing this weekend, so they're likely to emerge from the day's first event with a huge lead. Look for Mt. Vernon to score 300 points on Saturday and coast to their second-straight girls HHC championship.

The boys meet is closer on paper, and could go right down to the wire. That's what Yorktown has to pin its hopes on if the Tigers are to defend their eight-straight HHC championships (2002-2009). YHS head coach Brad Grieshop's boys have more top-end talent than any other team, with six number one seeds. By comparison, Greenfield Central and New Palestine both have two top seeds, and Pendleton Heights one. But depth is the most critical factor, and the Tigers' small roster makes it difficult to match up in that department.

Yorktown needs four things to happen on Saturday to win the boys title--1. The Tigers top seeds must hold on and win their events. 2. The Tigers need their three #2 seeds and their one #3 seed to rise to the challenge and win those events. 3. The Tigers need their other swimmers to cut time and move up several places in the seeded standings. And 4. The Tigers have to avoid any disqualifications and hope that someone else has at least one DQ. Fans who were at the 2009 meet know that's not impossible; Yorktown was DQ'd in the 400-yard freestyle relay, but still held on to win the team championship.

The group I like to call "Grieshop's Guys" have a lot of talent, and even more heart. They are a close-knit group of boys focused on keeping tradition alive. Look for the "Fab 4" to pull out all the stops, dig deeper than they ever have before, and lead Yorktown to its ninth-straight HHC championship.

See you on Saturday, and GO TIGERS!